UK Independence Party « Dr Alf's Blog



Embed from Getty Images

Please don’t rely on the UK mainstream media for truth and evidence – it’s too biased. Here’s an excellent guide to the first phase of the Brexit negotiations published by the European Parliamentary Research Service Blog

Source: The Brexit negotiations: Issues for the first phase | European Parliamentary Research Service Blog

Of course, worse than the output of the UK mainstream media are the platitudes and false truths from Prime Minister, Theresa May and her Brexit Minister, David Davis. I agree with my friend, and fellow blogger, John Gelmini, that these two are such weak negotiators that the UK will be forced into huge financial penalties and political sacrifices.

At least with the above checklist, you can track May and Davis’s concessions.

These are dangerous times for the UK politically, with massive downside economic risks – look at the increasing number of headlines that cite the word ‘revolution’ in relation to the UK.

I suggest that there are four political forces in play:

Conservative Party 1922 Committee ready to replace the prime minister if she continues to bungle her leadership and lose ground to Corbyn’s Labour Party – May has limited wiggle room on Brexit
Right-wing populism, with Nigel Farage, sitting in the wings, ready to step back into the limelight, whipping up support from the Far-Right
Left-wing populism, with Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party, having been hijacked by radical Far-Left activists focused on revolution.
The strategic political center for democracy, like Macron’s France, currently virtually unoccupied in the UK but looking increasingly attractive to Pro-European Tories and Blairite Labour MPs.

The way forward depends upon emerging contingencies and national events.

Strategists should be able to project a series of scenarios for risk profiling – that’s for another day. But let me share a deep lingering fear, when right-wing populism and left-wing populism converge – a nightmare, with perhaps a new ‘Hitler’, ‘Mussolini’ or ‘Stalin’ emerging in the UK, fanning the ashes of the revolution.

Thoughts?

Generic multi-axis political spectrum chart. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Nolan chart, 2d political spectrum. Diagonal line indicates classical 1d left-right political spectrum. See license below. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is a good read from the Independent. It reports that David Cameron and Ken Clarke have joined a concerted push by Conservative heavyweights for Theresa May to accept that her hard Brexit policy is doomed. It quotes the former prime minister urging his successor to “consult more widely” with other parties on the exit talks, saying: “I think there will be pressure for a softer Brexit.” It adds that the call was quickly followed by a plea from Mr Clarke, the former Chancellor, for new trade barriers “between us and our most important market in the world” to be avoided at all costs.

Source: David Cameron and Ken Clarke join Tory heavyweights urging Theresa May to abandon hard Brexit stance | The Independent

The Chancellor, Philip Hamond, can makes waves knowing that he has powerful support from big business and ordinary working people, as well as from ordinary Europeans and their governments.

Meanwhile, ‘the three stooges’, the triumvarite of ministers leading Brexit negotiations, are expected to continue to press for a hard Brexit. This will show European negotiators that the UK is hopelessly divided on Brexit.

I expect pressures to build with heavy-weight evidence from international experts piling in on the side of a soft Brexit. With the Far Right sponsors of a hard Brexit likely to intervene agressively, we can expect the reemergence of Nigel Farage. It’s possible that the UK people will be facing a stark choice between populists on the Far Right and those on the Far Left – the common denominator will be supression of truth and evidence, with rhetoric and dogma prevailing. But when the end justifies the means, freedoms and liberties are supressed in favor of the political will leaders and sponsors. Ordinary people should remember the story of the Pied Piper of Hamlin

Thoughts?