Toward a European Defense Union – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

English: The Carnegie Endowment for Internatio...

English: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace located at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW in the Dupont Circle neighborhood of Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Map of military alliances of Europe in 1914. (...

Map of military alliances of Europe in 1914. (English) Français: Carte des alliances militaires en Europe en 1914. (Anglais) Русский: Схема военных альянсов в Европе в 1914 г. (англ.) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Carnegie think tank argues that the creation of a common European army is a long way off, but it is a strategic necessity to start paving the way toward it now.

Source: Toward a European Defense Union – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Whilst this is an interesting read, it seems to completely ignore context and indeed the direction of future contextual impact.

Europe is polarizing towards the hard right and the hard-left. Right wing populists are appealing to voters who are deeply unhappy with the current political establishment. Look to the UK’s Brexit referendum and the shift to Le Pen in France. Also Angela Merkel‘s immigration policy has deeply divided Europe and it is questionable whether it can survive. Alarmingly, Europe’s foreign policy has lurched towards appeasing Turkey to stem the flow of refugees. Meanwhile, the hard-left is as loony as ever, ignoring evidence and projecting dogma. For example, Britain’s Labour Party has been taken over by the hard-left with pro-Palestinian policies and is increasingly embarrassed by  its members turning to anti semitism.

The argument of Carnegie is built on the false assumption of European unity. The alternative scenario is a deep divide between the hard-left and the hard-right and the EU crumbles and nationalism returns. Look to the build up of the 1st World War.

Thoughts?

 

Opinion – America loses Middle East to British and Ottoman empires – PravdaReport – John Gelmini

English: Map showing the territories of the Ot...

English: Map showing the territories of the Ottoman Empire in 1914, including nominal and vassal territories. According to the information on the map in http://ottomanmilitary.devhub.com/ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The article by Pravda is overblown and Dr Alf is right to be skeptical.

The UK’s Tri Forces stand at 83,000 men and woman and the Army is facing recruiting difficulties, the Navy is a cipher of its former self, with aircraft carriers without aircraft, no coastal protection vessel and no maritime coastal protection vessels patrolling our coasts. These are all in Calais attempting to interdict people smugglers and illegal migrants.

We are unable to protect our shipping as we only have 17 escort vessels for all of it and none to protect our coastal power stations, food imports and the undersea cable through which electricity from France comes via their nuclear power station (we only have 1.1% spare generating capacity over peak demand).

Worse than that the RAF has no thermobaric bombs, insufficient drones and is so small that the plan is to scrap it and integrate it into the Army Air Corps.

We are not in a position to defend ourselves let alone properly man bases overseas unless we plan to use mercenary forces and outsource the whole endeavour.

Turkey, is trying to rebuild the Ottoman Empire and will doubtless use transfer payments from countries like Germany and Britain and cash from the Saudis to fund bases for Turkey in parts of the Middle East.

John Gelmini