In this outstanding article by the WEF, the conclusion is that Brexit will be a hard one, which will hit the UK economy and be felt hardest by those who voted for it.
Source: Brexit could be the best thing that happened to the European Union | World Economic Forum
The article recognizes that those that voted for Brexit ignored the economic arguments. By and large, Brexit appealed to older less well educated voters.
The arguments in this article are well developed. With the projected economic downsides, it will be interesting to see if voters waiver in the UK’s general election. Remainers seem to be fighting for a softer Brexit but will they gain traction?
Dr Alf brings us an interesting take on Brexit which misses a number of key points.
The proposed Brexit bill of £50 billion GBP is excessive because the nett contributions after rebates are £12 billion GBP a year and factoring in unfunded pension contributions for staff employed by the EU does not come to anything like this amount, especially if the Article 50 discussions last only two years or more likely fail in acrimony. The EU exports ten times as much to the UK as the UK exports to it, mostly luxury German cars and engineered products.
That means we actually have leverage if only May and her three stooges, Johnson, Davis and supine Liam Fox, start to negotiate properly, or until they are replaced by someone like John Redwood, or someone who is both educated and sharp enough not to take any nonsense from Merkel.
The assumption of the WEF and remainers is that the EU will survive in its present form even after another Greek bailout, an Italian bank bailout and reforms to the remaining PIIGS. A split between North and South is quite feasible, which begs the question about whom May will be negotiating if it happens in the next two years.
Then there is the issue of the Dublin Financial District, through which which we lose more money in Corporation Tax than we make in foreign exchange from all of our pitiful exports plus the costs of extra infrastructure that increased migration and gross overpopulation creates.
May has dithered when she should have acted and she and her three stooges failed to protect financial services and banking with a nearshoring ALMO solution.
The situation is fixable but the bloated public sector, monarchy, House of Lords and fraud, financial irregularity and waste have to be tackled and fat cat bosses and worker productivity has to be sorted out before we can export a lot more.
May’s record of dithering gives me no confidence so a replacement with real energy will be needed before the UK can become the Switzerland of the world.