This is a brilliant MUST READ article in the Economist. Check it out!
Personally, I have been an optimist as far as Germany is concerned over the last two years. To date, the German approach has been largely incremental rather than radical. I have a healthy respect for the German vision of making Europe more competitive. To date, Germany has effectively been vetoing both fiscal and monetary expansion in Europe which has been extremely painful for Southern Europe.
The Economist article looks forward to the year 2020, with two very different scenarios, one rosy and the other full of gloom. The article shrewdly paints the upside opportunities and shares the downside risks. The article looks to the changes required from the German political classes; it highlights that Germany needs to place more focus on economics rather than legalistic solutions. Ultimately, after the election, Germany must lead more effectively, taking the rest of Europe with her; this does not necessarily need to be a federal model.
In my view, the downside case remains a disaster scenario.
What do you think?